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Who will get an Oscar? Go out on a limb and make some predictions - no need to choose in every category. Here are the main categories and the nominees:

BEST PICTURE
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

DIRECTING
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

ACTOR -- LEADING
Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE
Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW
Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE
David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

ACTOR -- SUPPORTING
George Clooney - SYRIANA
Matt Dillon - CRASH
Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
Jake Gyllenhaal -
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

ACTRESS -- LEADING
Judi Dench -
MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA
Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE
Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY
Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE

ACTRESS -- SUPPORTING
Amy Adams - JUNEBUG
Catherine Keener - CAPOTE
Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY
Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER
Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Best Picture: Good Night, and Good Luck (2nd choice is Crash)
Directing: Crash (2nd choice is Brokeback Mountain)
Leading Actor: David Strathairn (2nd choice would be Philip Seymour Hoffman)

I managed to see all five Best Picture (and Directing) nominees. Haven't seen enough of the other films to make any other selection besides Leading Actor.

I'm probably way off, but here's my thinking on Best Picture. Brokeback Mountain and Crash will split the social conciousness vote. Capote and Munich were good films but my gut says they won't win. Munich, for example, was highly criticized for being very historically inaccurate. So I'm going with the Edward R. Murrow film with a political message that rings true today.

Apart from the "social consciousness" aspect, I think that Brokeback Mountain is a very good movie, and would deserve an Oscar for that sole reason.

By the way Bud, you are heading nicely towards the 1000 posts mark